WEDNESDAY FLOW NOTES

Nice day of action for a FOMC day .. Like most Fed decision days, the best of the action came off the opening bell & dried up through the 2pm decision .. Commodity related names were in focus again today & very quietly have put together a solid little rally here ..

• No major changes from the Fed or the flow post announcement .. GDX, miners & metals saw the best of the sweeper activity but there was some buying in other spots as well .. The Powell put is alive & well, as our buddy basically confirmed he wants both inflation & the economy to run hot .. In simple English, a fed hike is nowhere close, even if we start seeing stronger economic data ..

• Shorr term sentiment was a non factor again today with readings running around NEUTRAL most of the session .. Gamma tacked on a couple pounds today, sitting at a sturdy +$1.3b .. The Gamma gang continues to stress to me, don’t focus on trying to find a sell signal at the top. The thing to keep a close eye on is Gamma volatility & when that trades at or close to par, that would be a potential sign of caution.. That likely won’t come into highs at the tippy top but will allow us to step aside of a possible VIX-plosion, which usually comes at the end of this.. Remember their initial thesis where gamma would need to be chipped away at, over some time, before a vol window would open .. That was said when GEX was at +$2.5b .. We currently sit at $1.3b .. Other than that, when exposure gets up to +2b, expect some of that stickiness in price action again ..

• Some more noise coming up the rest of the week here with U.K. elections, ECB stuff & the most important Trump tariff decision .. To make things even sloppier than they are, the White House this week is starting to push the narrative that the 12/15 date was never a “hard” deadline, so there may not be a resolution to this mess by next week ..

• Players have been piling up protection in SPX & it has been accelerating over the past few days .. Doesn’t necessarily tell us much besides the point players are scrambling for exposure in individual names into year end & protecting Trump headline risk in SPX ..

💡MONDAY’S FLOW NOTES

Once again, bull Sweepers were active off the open, and it wasn’t just spec & momentum players either .. There was solid order flow out there early on, as buying was both aggressive & solid size .. Individual names which saw action, once again, showed solid intraday momentum off the order flow..

• As we have been accustomed to in recent weeks, buyers off the open dried up by late morning .. There was also some protection that showed up in some of the hot & overextended names like AAPL .. Really difficult to get a clean read on put buying that shows up in extended names .. It’s both normal & expected, especially ahead of a big week of events like we have this week.. I recommend utilizing the selective put sweeper activity, when aggressive, for intraday momentum purposes only rather than relying on the bearish bet being correct over time ..

• Seemed like just a normal down day for the indices today .. VIX was higher but as I mentioned earlier with hearing from Central banks all week & an important tariff decision to close it out, it makes sense .. There was also some rotation out there today but not exactly Sector focused .. It seemed they were taking some profit in a few of the hot names & moving some funds into laggards..

• As we have discussed on numerous occasions the past couple weeks, I feel we should continue to focus on sweeper activity in individual names.. Even more so on initial buying off fresh setups .. Being nimble & more tactical as well will allow us to shake off some of the added headline risk that comes with this week.

• Short-term sentiment cools off a bit from today’s price action & helps keep tactical bulls in check .. more importantly, keep a few bears involved ..

• Remember no matter how good or bad something may look right now, the likelihood is it’s destiny will hinder on this tariff decision .. Also keep this in mind when seeing flow this week in short-dated strikes .. Next week, hopefully we can go back to a cleaner version of flow ..